After last night's College Football Playoff Rankings, controversy is king. The top 4 are 1) Georgia 2) Michigan 3) Washington and 4) FSU. Oregon is outside the top 4 at five and Ohio State is at 6. Texas and Alabama remained locked in at 7 and 8.
The four most-likely scenarios are as follows:
Scenario #1: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and FSU win out leaving just the four undefeated teams set for the Playoffs. An undefeated FSU being left out because they're missing their starting quarterback Jordan Travis is ridiculous at that point because they would have defeated the #14 Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game while Ohio State sat at home.
Scenario #2: Alabama upsets Georgia, Michigan beats Iowa, Oregon beats Washington, FSU falls to Louisville, and Texas beats Oklahoma State. This gets a little sticky because Alabama would have a win over the #1 team in the nation at that point. You'd have three 1-loss teams as conference champions and only one undefeated team in Michigan. Ohio State could sneak their way in despite not playing leaving both Alabama and Texas out despite their conference championships. If that were to occur I think it would be #1 Michigan, #2, Oregon #3 Ohio State, and #4 Texas.
Scenario #3: Georgia beats Alabama, Michigan beats Iowa, Oregon beats Washington, Texas beats Oklahoma State, and FSU loses to Louisville. In this case, it would come down to who the committee favored between Texas and Ohio State. Texas would have a conference championship and their best win would be over a probably 11th-ranked Alabama team while Ohio State would not have a conference championship with their best win being over a top-ten Penn State team. I think the committee would put in Ohio State over Texas making it #1 Georgia, #2 Michigan, #3 Oregon, and #4 Ohio State. I don't think Ohio State should be in over Texas though because a conference championship should mean something. This scenario would also give the Rose Bowl one final Big Ten vs. Pac 12 Rose Bowl which would make the Rose Bowl Committee quite happy.
And now that brings us to my favorite scenario, the chaos scenario. Alabama beats Georgia. Iowa beats Michigan. Oregon beats Washington. Louisville beats FSU. Texas beats Oklahoma State. This scenario is the Elmo Fire Gif for the Committee. You have three one-loss conference champions with Alabama, Oregon, and Texas and four one-loss non-conference champions with Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Ohio State. This scenario gets very messy for the committee and would make them possibly try to establish the 12-team playoff this year. In this scenario, who knows what the committee would do. I think you'd have to take the three one-loss conference champions at this point in some order so that gives you Alabama, Oregon, and Texas because the committee has established that conference championships should matter. The final spot remaining would be tricky but I think the committee would go with Michigan due to their two top-ten wins against Ohio State and Penn State. I think you'd have Oregon and Michigan in the Rose Bowl and Texas and Alabama in the Sugar.
While we're not sure what will happen, there is a lot of intrigue going into Conference Championship Weekend that should see record viewership for the different games. It will also show that this year is in desperate need of the expanded playoffs. There will be a deserving team left out and unfortunately that team will have no recourse and only wonder what might have been.
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